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Home | Getting Started | Personal Finance | Q & A | Sample Portfolio | Glossary | About Us |
| Date: Friday 29th 2008f August 2008 09:43:24 PM |
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Daily Commentary? Think not - 07/30/2005 |
| By: Hari Wibowo |
| It looks quiet in here at Noviceinvesting. No update for two weeks, you say. Not! We are actually updating our annual report section. We will strive to provide a complete annual report for at least most of the companies that is in fortune 100. Right now, it is still work in progress. That's why you don't see a whole lot of commentary down here from us. But hey, we still update our featured articles to keep you abreast of recent development in US stocks. |
| But seriously, is there anything different if we write a more often commentary? How about daily commentary? I honestly don't think it makes a whole lot of difference. Our goal at noviceinvesting is to beat the 10% annual return of index fund. 15 % is our goal. We invest for the long term. Long term here does not mean that we buy and forget. We will and should review our holdings from time to time but it does not mean that we comment about it daily! |
| So, let's review what we had in our sample portfolio. Magna International (MGA) is up at around $ 75, up about 20% since we held it on April 2005. Was there anything different back then? Nope. It still is on track to deliver $ 6.10 of Earning per share for 2005. In the first quarter, it earned $ 1.70 per share, which means $ 6.10 annual EPS might prove to be too low. But, as we pointed out here, with $ 6.10 EPS, Magna's fair value is at $ 105 per share. |
| Enough said about Magna. How about Leap Frog Enterprises (LF) ? Our prediction is for $ 1.18 per share in earning for fiscal year 2005. So far, it hasn't performed to that expectation but there are reasons why it might change. Leap Frog depends on the holiday season for a lot of its revenue. 70% of its revenue occur during the 2nd half of the year. The introduction of Pentop is one of the reason why I am bullish. It is aimed towards tweens, 9-14 years old who increasingly spend more time getting online. Go click here to view the introduction. I bet you are gonna love it. The company reported that within a few days of introduction, about 200,000 visitors have logged onto the website and the product has not even been shipped until Fall of 2005. Now, each pentop has a retail price of $100. You be the judge on this. Perhaps, Leapfrog can attract more than 2-3 million visitors by the end of September. Assuming half of them bought the product, that is $ 150 M in new revenue for Leap Frog. |
| Lastly, let's talk about Fresh Del Monte Produce (FDP). Our first pick went nowhere so far this year. But the company is still churning out cash. Aug 2 is the next earning report. Most analysts predict $ 2.40 EPS for 2005. It earned 84 cents a share on the 1Q ending in March 2005. Our prediction is for FDP to earn $ 3.33. We will see. If there is no disruption in banana production etc, $ 3.33 is attainable. |
| So, there you go. It is time to go back to sleep and do other things in life. Investing is not supposed to be your full-time job, at least for most people. Go do your job, make friends, plan your social events while growing your money. Of course, you still have to do your research once in a while. Perhaps, once a month or so. In the meantime, you can go ahead and read our featured articles in our front page here. Happy investing! |
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For more discussions about our stock portfolio pick, please click here. |
| Or....for preliminary research, you can browse our collection of annual reports here |
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